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Prediction for CME (2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-01T08:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28924/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Partial halo CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source centered around N20E05. A C3.0 flare peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive arcades in STEREO A EUV 195 and SDO AIA 193, but eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO From 2024-02-01T06:42Z to 2024-02-01T07:51Z. Filamentary material seen lifting off in GOES SUVI 304, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in SDO AIA 94. Possible arrival signature is unclear. The complex signature is characterized by gradual increases in Btotal (to 11nT) and solar wind speed (to 500 km/s), as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components indicative of a high speed stream. It is possible that this signature includes a CME arrival, as it also encompasses a drop in temperature and density over 2024-02-05. The signature will be revisited once Level 1 solar wind data is available.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T02:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40202
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Feb 2024, 1238UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Feb 2024  10CM FLUX: 144 / AP: 001 
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2024  10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 007 
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2024  10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 021

Coronal mass ejections: The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was reported on February 01, associated with a C3.1 flare, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 07:48 UTC February 01. This eruption was predominantly directed to the north-east but is determined to have an Earth directed component, which is expected to impact Earth early on February 04. No new Earth directed CMEs have been detected.

Lead Time: 37.77 hour(s)
Difference: -1.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-02-02T12:49Z

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